From April 2021 there will be a gradual re-opening of non-essential shops throughout the UK, with regional variations in Scotland, N Ireland and Wales. It will be a nervous time for brands and retailers – will consumers buy apparel as they did before the pandemic? There will doubtless be an initial spending spree with pent-up demand but will this be short-lived? For sure COVID cases worldwide are dropping off – people have learnt careful practice and social distancing and new vaccines bring new hope but this does not seem to translate into buying more apparel. It is going to be tough to forecast likely demand as the year progresses and it is a worrying prospect for brands & retailers alike when traditional patterns and forecasts are virtually meaningless in the ‘new world’ of 2021.
As we stand now, GDP of economies worldwide is down, consumption is down with governments’ spending and budgeting replaced by huge infusions of cash to try to stem severe economic depression – balancing government budgets is truly a thing of the past! To be fair, governments have little choice but to print more money and inject capital into struggling economies but how will this ‘easy’ money affect consumer buying patterns? The unpredictability of the COVID virus with new variants appearing regularly has literally ‘messed up’ the heads of consumers and the slight upturn we all saw last summer was rapidly usurped by the primary anxiety of not finance but health.
The UK is now entering a new stage in spring 2021 – where financial concerns start to outweigh health concerns and when spending intent is focussed more on discretionary rather than essential spend. With an efficient vaccination programme well underway, there are clear signs that health and safety concerns are taking more of a back seat as the whole retail chain is keen to get going and kick start the economy – literally everyone getting back to work. Underlying this natural desire to become more socially active and become a ‘physical’, all-round consumer again is the understandable concern of future lockdowns (national or regional), loss of jobs and the emotional burden of having lost loved ones over the last 12 months.
In broad terms, consumers have postponed much of their clothing purchases against a backdrop where not much dressing up was required and where online or online-influenced purchases gained prominence for the most essential of apparel purchases – so underwear sales did not drop as drastically as outerwear or swimwear for example. Mintel’s Underwear Report in June 2020 highlighted the effects in the short term and forecast buying habits in the medium to longer term. Consumer attitudes are not all homogenous however, regardless of age or gender.
Expected impact of COVID-19 on underwear, nightwear and loungewear, short-, medium-and-long-term, June 2020 (Source: Mintel)
Global provider of leading professional services, Deloitte (in their State of the Consumer regular updates) can help us to understand better where the new consumer demand may come from by classifying them into four key ‘personas’ that have emerged over the last 12 months: stockpilers, convenience seekers, bargain hunters and socially conscious shoppers (those who desire to buy more locally sourced products and/or buy from brands that responded rapidly and well to the crisis). Stockpilers meaning those who already have more than they need; convenience seekers who are OK with spending more if it is convenient to do so; bargain hunters who regardless of circumstances if they find a good deal for non-essential purchases will buy them now and the socially conscious shoppers (who I would suggest do not just include not only those supporting local and consumer-driven brands but also a growing desire to know the origins of their clothing and its sustainability and biodegradability credentials).
Whilst it is helpful from a marketing & brand point of view to identify and clarify these consumer personas it is important to remember that not all are mutually exclusive but there is often a high degree of crossover.
Finances and the economy is on everyone’s mind now and the moves towards rationalisation (or perhaps absorption) of brands is well underway. The hefty bricks & mortar outlets (primarily department and chain stores) have floundered with too much physical footfall space to be sustained before, during or after the pandemic and huge job losses in the apparel market have resulted. The more ‘nimble’ or flexible of apparel business models such as Next have absorbed ‘household’ apparel names to retain customer loyalty to popular brand names that could no longer thrive on their own premise. So too Marks & Spencer is ‘hoovering’ up brands that are firmly within their key target consumer audience. This is a pattern that is likely to continue with perceived strong brands being acquired by organisations that have a much better multi-channel operation.
The one thing that is repeated when talking to business leaders and advisors is that everyone wants and needs to be closer to consumer reactions. Once products are sold, feedback is essential – did they like the purchase, how was the fit, would they buy again and could the consumers themselves suggest improvements? By including the consumer directly in design or development this may result in more product variety and less waste as brands could turn to shorter runs, test runs and in fact lower minimums of ordering and supply.
One thing that has emerged over last 12 months is that consumers of underwear certainly dictated the direction of the market – more loungewear, more sports bras/garments and softer styles (non-wired, bralettes) with 84% of shoppers (according to Mintel) agreeing that it is more important for underwear to be comfortable than fashionable. Another key trend from 2020 was the need for even more size inclusivity and diversity. The UK more than ever is struggling with high levels of obesity (63% of all adults classified as overweight or obese) and mainstream brands need to further address this demand. And it is not just our increasing waistlines but new products are needed for more mature wearers.
Diversity of offer has taken longer to get a foothold in the UK than the USA but a host of new underwear brands have appeared in the last 6-18 months which are addressing consumer demands for sustainability, size inclusivity and more skin tone diversity and these new brands are more agile and better able to adapt to a changing market that demands social interaction and strong social media presence. And again it is consumer demand that is helping direct the market – given the ethnic diversity of the UK there is still plenty of room for brands that address and engage these consumers directly.
And this is why listening to the consumer is more important than ever – we have seen how some brands have already disappeared, some will continue to be absorbed into larger companies and dare we say it, some may still fail in the remaining months of 2021.
