The coronavirus outbreak has wreaked havoc with the aviation industry and globally consumers have cancelled travel plans. Combined with staycations as the more likely new summer getaways and the cancellation/postponement of resort shows, trading is going to get a lot tougher for the swimwear market.
It all started so well – in major markets it looked as if Spring 2020 would outstrip 2019 – but monthly drops in February and March in the UK as retailers experienced disruption of supply or became more cautious with deliveries heading towards the official lockdown announced on 20th March. February and March have been traditionally key months for phasing swimwear in. However at the start of the last week of March 2020, 60% of swimwear styles were on discount, a dangerous route to maintain going forward. Smaller retailers who are closed for business and have no major turnover from transactional websites are holding back on reducing too deep – the right approach as swimwear cannot possibly move as quickly as in previous years.
Davy J
What this means for the 2021 new collections is currently hard to assess: if retailers in the UK can safely open up from June 2020 onwards there may still be time to salvage margins for the latter half of the year. With some holiday destinations being deemed relatively ‘safe’ e.g. Cyprus and Greece with their tight lockdowns and very low death and incidence rates, there may well be a rush to capture some summer sun late August and early September for adults with children. Or further afield to destinations such as the Maldives. It is certainly likely that flights will recommence by that time.
So phasing and retaining stock without heavy discounting may be the way ahead – delay to the festival season means it might be wise to hold onto the neons, earthy colours and 70s styles longer than previously. Animal prints are always a fashion ‘mainstay’ and will work outside of season. Square neck shapes and athletic silhouettes are low risk to hold onto now and into the future.
And rather than being overshadowed by reduced aviation and lessening of mass production, sustainability has a heightened role, being thrust into the spotlight. With improvements to our environment and glimpses of nature not seen for decade: when consumers come out of lockdown, it is a great opportunity for retailers to promote local travel and holidays – reducing carbon emissions and avoid pollution into our seas and oceans. And even if the lure of overseas travel proves too strong, consumers will have experienced a time of less avid consumption where fashion and swimwear are concerned and it is likely that they will make more considered and considerate purchases going ahead in 2020 and 2021.
Some of the freshest labels in the UK have been championing products that are less harmful to the environment (particularly the oceans and seas): Deakin & Blue with their styles made from ECONYL®, a regenerated yarn made from spent fishing nets; Davy J and Tucca Swim (again regenerated nylon yarn).
To get a glimpse into the consumer coming out of the crisis we can look to China where non-essential retail outlets are largely opened now. Whilst there was some discounting to encourage ‘traffic’, the country is holding back on discounting items too deeply that sold well during lock-down. With summer approaching items such as sweatshirts and hoodies are being reduced but outlets are holding back on reducing items such as dresses and swimwear (harder to shift during lockdown) to preserve margin for these categories now that people can go out. Of course generalisations are easy to misinterpret and it is important to remember that even here, the volume of people shopping in physical stores is still 4-5 months off to a total recovery and different cities, provinces and regions all have various experiences in rebounding.* There is no reason to anticipate that this pattern will not be repeated across Europe when shops are allowed to re-open. The UK looks sets to come to this rebound later than the continental European markets.
As we go to press the July Show in Miami has been cancelled and London Swimwear Show has not yet made a definitive statement on either postponement or cancellation but events in France and Italy have all been moved to a September deadline. Germany alone looks sets to run a summer event (Supreme Body & Beach) in Munich from 22-24 August.
*Source: edited.com
